Uncertain events that result in gains to the achievement of an organization’s objectives are sometimes called ‘upside risks’, but we prefer to refer to them as OPPORTUNITIES. (Why? Opportunities should be assessed as part of your strategic review, and organizations tend to think about "upside risks" on an ad hoc basis and overlook key benefits.)
The expected loss from a risk event is the average loss over some period of time and is computed as the likelihood of the event times its impact. Expert Choice Riskion® provides an easy way for organizations to collect and synthesize likelihood and data. The likelihood of an event can be estimated directly using a variety of measurement methods and based on historical data as well as human judgment.
The likelihood of an event can also be estimated indirectly by estimating the likelihood of one or more causes of the event and the likelihood of the event given its causes. Causes, sources, threats, intents, etc. may be certain or uncertain, but unlike events, do not result in a loss. (In absence of historical data, or in instances where historical data is unlikely to accurately predict the future. Expert Choice Riskion uses a proven methodology based on pairwise comparisons which has been validated to provide estimates that are remarkably accurate.)