What is the difference between investing and gambling?  The short answer is that in the long run, gambling will result in a loss, but investing will result in a gain.  But how do you know which is which?  In order to tell, you need to know something about the probability distribution.  Following along the arguments presented in the book, The Wisdom of Crowds, we can derive probability distributions, for such things as the price of a stock, by asking for judgments from many people who are diverse, independent, and decentralized.

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